不良贷款约束下中国农村商业银行生产率增长及收敛性研究

基于全域生产可能性集合,文章构建全域Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数,测度了2008-2013年不良贷款约束下中国农村商业银行全要素生产率及其分解,并对其收敛性进行检验。研究发现:整体来说,中国农村商业银行全要素生产率略有下降,主要来源于技术退步,东部地区农商行生产率变化轨迹呈"V"形,而中西部地区农商行生产率变化轨迹呈倒"V"形;产权制度改革对技术效率具有一定促进作用,而货币政策、新监管标准以及产业转型政策对技术变化具有负面影响;中国农村商业银行的全要素生产率存在绝对和条件β收敛,中间业务技术含量和实际GDP增长率的提高能有效促进中国农村商业银行生产率增长。     

Global value chains and the lost competitiveness of the Japanese watch industry: an applied business history of Seiko since 1990

An applied business history approach offers particular insights into the lost competitiveness of the Japanese watch company Seiko and its causes. Although Seiko was the world's largest firm in the watch industry in the mid-1980s, the company experienced a huge decrease in sales during the next decade and became unable to compete effectively against Swiss watch companies that had repositioned themselves in luxury business. The focus on the evolution of global value chains (GVC) in the industry, which saw a shift from producer-driven GVC to buyer-driven GVC, highlights a major change in the 1990s. Seiko did not change its strategy despite this paradigm shift and has continued to run its foreign subsidiaries according to the producer-driven model.     

全球化经济下的新概念——全球品牌

全球化经济、电子通讯技术的发展和年轻一代文化的发展,促成了全球品牌的形成,这些全球品牌具有自己的特点和具有特别的价值。全球品牌不仅帮助企业应对国际合作,也帮助企业适应年青一代文化的发展,让企业的品牌在世界上更强大。     

HIGH‐ORDER SHORT‐TIME EXPANSIONS FOR ATM OPTION PRICES OF EXPONENTIAL LÉVY MODELS

The short‐time asymptotic behavior of option prices for a variety of models with jumps has received much attention in recent years. In this work, a novel second‐order approximation for at‐the‐money (ATM) option prices is derived for a large class of exponential Lévy models with or without Brownian component. The results hereafter shed new light on the connection between both the volatility of the continuous component and the jump parameters and the behavior of ATM option prices near expiration. In the presence of a Brownian component, the second‐order term, in time‐t, is of the form , with d₂ only depending on Y, the degree of jump activity, on σ, the volatility of the continuous component, and on an additional parameter controlling the intensity of the “small” jumps (regardless of their signs). This extends the well‐known result that the leading first‐order term is . In contrast, under a pure‐jump model, the dependence on Y and on the separate intensities of negative and positive small jumps are already reflected in the leading term, which is of the form . The second‐order term is shown to be of the form and, therefore, its order of decay turns out to be independent of Y. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding Black–Scholes implied volatilities is also addressed. Our method of proof is based on an integral representation of the option price involving the tail probability of the log‐return process under the share measure and a suitable change of probability measure under which the pure‐jump component of the log‐return process becomes a Y‐stable process. Our approach is sufficiently general to cover a wide class of Lévy processes, which satisfy the latter property and whose Lévy density can be closely approximated by a stable density near the origin. Our numerical results show that the first‐order term typically exhibits rather poor performance and that the second‐order term can significantly improve the approximation's accuracy, particularly in the absence of a Brownian component.     

经济研究中的演化博弈理论

本文对国内外演化博弈论的发展动态进行了较系统的综述，指出演化博弈论以及演化博弈模型的基本特征，并从方法论、认识论、时间的不可逆性、随机因素、选择机制及均衡等方面进一步说明了演化博弈论在经济学领域的应用价值及应用前景。     

基于CGMS模型的我国家电企业全球化战略的瓶颈因素及其战略对策

本文应用跨国企业的全球营销战略模型(CGMS),选取在国内具有影响力和代表性的19家家电企业为研究样本,对其全球营销战略与内外部关键影响力因素关系进行实证检验,运用多元线性回归统计技术找出影响制约家电企业提升全球营销战略水平的瓶颈因素,并据此给出相应的对策,以期对我国家电企业提升全球化战略水平有所裨益。     

基于稳态分布的资本资产定价模型上海股市实证分析

运用BS估计和OLS估计对资本资产定价模型在我国证券市场的应用进行了实证分析,分析结果显示,运用OLS方法对建立在资产收益为正态分布基础上的传统资本资产定价模型与运用BS方法对资产收益为α稳态分布的资本资产定价模型的贝塔系数估计值存在较大的差异,而BS估计方法明显比OLS估计方法更有效率。     

国际食物消费可持续性研究进展

[目的]通过国际食物消费可持续性研究领域动态分析,为食物和可持续发展领域研究方向与趋势提供知识基础与借鉴。[方法]文章基于文献计量研究方法,通过趋势分析、合作网络、共被引和关键词共现等分析,对1986—2019年国际食物消费可持续性相关研究进行了总结。[结果]（1）近30多年来食物消费可持续性研究不断发展,尤其是近10年来,呈现快速发展趋势;研究主要集中在环境、食物、营养、农业和生态领域。（2）食物消费可持续性研究最多产的作者和机构位于美国和欧洲国家,中国是亚洲的一个重要节点,但研究总体仍有待进一步加强;联合国粮农组织（Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,FAO）为食物消费领域与其他众多领域的研究构建了重要的桥梁;发表在Science和Nature期刊的相关研究成果是食物消费可持续性研究领域的重要基础。（3）食物消费可持续性研究的主题主要包括食物与农业系统可持续性、食物安全与营养健康质量和食物消费资源环境效应及可持续性评估三个方面。[结论]发展中国家和欠发达地区食物消费可持续性研究有待加强,同时食物消费可持续性...     

成都农业转移人口市民化问题研究

作为西部特大中心城市,成都常住人口城镇化加速与农业转移人口市民化滞后并存。农业转移人口市民化面临的主要问题是农民工就业稳定性差、城市居住现实和居住意愿之间差距大和城市融入任重道远。应推进以人为核心的新型城镇化,继续深化户籍制度改革,拓宽住房保障渠道,坚持工业化和城镇化良性互动,注重农民工城市融合,有重点分步骤解决好农业转移人口市民化问题。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.